In April 2021, we launched the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI<\/a>). In this post, we provide a review of SI\u2019s work since inception. We outline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI) was founded in April 2021, with the goal of enhancing the multilateral system\u2019s ability to anticipate and mitigate global catastrophic risks. In the last decade, advances in artificial intelligence<\/a> and biotechnology<\/a> have increased the prospects of drastic technological breakthroughs and risks which the multilateral system is currently not equipped to govern. Short-term incentives continue to make it difficult for policymakers to think on longer time scales, consider the needs of future generations, and address emerging risks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n SI\u2019s early work set out to address these issues by training policymakers on decision-making under uncertainty, advocating for future generations\u2019 representation in dominant political narratives, and pushing for the inclusion of emerging technological risks into key multilateral agendas. As political discourse quickly began to acknowledge risks from rapid technological change, SI pivoted to supplying subject matter expertise on risk governance, artificial intelligence (AI), and biotechnology. Going forward, SI will continue to adapt its activities in light of the multilateral system\u2019s biggest needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To date, SI has contributed to key intergovernmental processes<\/a> for reducing global risks, developed a future-proofing framework<\/a> to inform the High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism, and delivered the first and most extensive United Nations (UN) report<\/a> on existential risk and rapid technological change. Additionally, SI has published research papers<\/a>, interview analyses<\/a>, frameworks<\/a>, training exercises<\/a> and table-top exercises<\/a> to equip policymakers with insights and tools for better understanding risk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n SI was named after Herbert Simon<\/a>, an American polymath and political scientist renowned for his work in decision making, organizational theory, and complex systems. Herbert foresaw the increasing role technology would play in our lives, and understood the importance of actively designing a sustainable future. In his own words: <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI don\u2019t believe that predicting the future is really what we\u2019re about. After all, we ourselves, or at least the younger ones among us, are going to be a part of the future. So being a part of it, our task is not really to predict it. Our task is to design it, to design a sustainable, and acceptable world.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n For its first 13 months, SI operated without full time staff, with its first full time team only starting in June 2022. Despite this short time-frame, SI\u2019s early successes in fostering long-term governance provide solid proof of concept. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In brief, SI\u2019s first two years have been marked by: <\/p>\n\n\n\n Below, we outline five key impact stories so far, along with 19 counterfactual impact points \u2013 instances where we believe SI\u2019s contributions have made a significant difference. We concentrate on notable instances of information exchange, knowledge production, and coordination, to help demonstrate the tangible impact of our work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2021, in response to a wave of global shocks, including Covid-19 and the growing climate crisis, the UN Secretary General issued Our Common Agenda<\/a> (OCA) \u2013 a blueprint for renewed international cooperation. In it, plans for a 2024 Summit for the Future<\/a> were announced, with the aim of bringing global leaders together to forge consensus on how best to address existing and emerging challenges at once. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For SI, the Summit provided a chance to advocate for future-oriented issues currently missing from multilateral discussions, such as risks from advanced technologies. Through a series of workshops, meetings, and events, SI convened researchers and policymakers to bridge knowledge gaps on emerging technological issues, promote information exchange, and spark joint contributions to multilateral processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2019s contributions\u2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n At the 2024 Summit of the Future, an action-oriented Pact for the Future<\/a> will be adopted, detailing practical measures to enshrine and promote the rights of future generations. To prevent key framings on future generations from becoming diluted, politicized, or misused, SI focused on informing key documents and processes feeding into the pact. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2019s contributions\u2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Going forward, SI plans to maintain its engagement with Our Common Agenda, while shifting focus towards informing key risk and technology related processes feeding into OCA, such as the Global Risk Report and Global Digital Compact. SI will continue to monitor progress towards the Summit of the Future, and find ways to add value where possible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction<\/a> is currently the sole framework for coordinating disaster risk reduction efforts on an international scale. Throughout 2022 and early 2023, the framework underwent a period of review. SI leveraged this review period to raise awareness about catastrophic and existential risks and risks posed by advanced technologies \u2013 two topics commonly excluded from disaster risk discussions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2019s contributions\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n While the Sendai framework review period is now over, recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have generated newfound demand for actors who can provide an informed voice on the technology. As a result, SI plans to focus on supplying insights on frontier AI to a diverse range of multilateral actors. Through this work, SI hopes that multilateral discussions on AI governance become more technically sound, and avoid political fragmentation through the active and informed participation of all countries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is the leading international instrument for upholding the non-development and non-proliferation of biological weapons, and remains a primary forum for discussing risks from pandemics and biotechnology. During the 2021 Meeting of States Parties and the 2022 9th Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention<\/a>, SI coordinated several dinners, events and engagements for biosecurity researchers and policymakers to raise awareness about engineered pandemics \u2013 a topic often forgotten in the breadth of discussions surrounding the BWC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2019s contributions\u2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Going forward, SI plans to reduce its focus on biosecurity, in order to consolidate its AI governance-related activities. SI hopes to transfer its existing contacts and accumulated knowledge to other organizations working towards the safe governance of advanced biotechnologies, for example, to the newly launched International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS)<\/a>. SI will continue to monitor key biosecurity developments and remains open to adapting its strategy in response to the changing needs of the multilateral system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In its first two years, SI dedicated a significant portion of its resources to advancing the field of long-term governance through research, publications, collaborations with international organizations, expert surveys, training, career advice, and policy guidance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2019s work\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moving forward, SI plans to reduce its focus on building the field of long-term governance and instead engage more actively in multilateral processes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the past two years, the starkest progress SI made was in establishing itself as a functional and recognized organization. SI went from an abstract project with no office and no funding, to an institutionalized, well-resourced organization with promising signs of value-add to multilateral processes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Without SI\u2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Going forward, SI plans to shift its focus towards the promotion of multilateral governance for AI. Leveraging existing networks and knowledge, SI hopes to help boost the multilateral system\u2019s ability to prioritize, discuss and deploy solutions to reduce risks and maximize benefits from transformative technological advances. We also plan to advise national and non-governmental actors working on frontier AI, to act and communicate in ways that enhance multilateral progress, instead of spurring further fragmentation. You can see here<\/a> to read more about our plans until 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/a>Why We Founded SI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>Our First Two Years in Numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>Our Work and Impact so Far<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/a>1. SI is improving the chances of a successful UN \u201cSummit for the Future\u201d <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>2. SI informed the mid-term review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>3. SI increased awareness about engineered pandemics around the Biological Weapons Convention <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>4. SI contributed to building the field of long-term governance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>5. SI became a professional organization filling an underserved niche<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>Our Plans Moving Forward<\/h2>\n\n\n\n