{"id":531,"date":"2023-05-30T11:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T11:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/?p=531"},"modified":"2025-07-18T06:10:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T06:10:10","slug":"biotechnology-a-brief-on-risks-and-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/blog\/post\/biotechnology-a-brief-on-risks-and-opportunities","title":{"rendered":"Biotechnology: a Brief on Risks and Opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last few years have witnessed exciting developments in the field of biotechnology, driven in part by the machine learning revolution. However, as the Covid-19 pandemic shows, humanity is vulnerable to biological threats, whether natural or man-made. Biotechnological progress is increasing the risk of extreme pandemics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To assist international policy actors in the development of sustainable technological development, we\u2019re publishing this short guide to recent developments in biotechnology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"risks-and-opportunities-from-biotechnology\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simoninstitute.ch\/blog\/post\/biotechnology-a-brief-on-risks-and-opportunities\/#risks-and-opportunities-from-biotechnology\"><\/a>Risks and opportunities from biotechnology<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1-sentence summary:<\/strong>&nbsp;Biotechnology has great potential for vaccines and medicine, but as long as we lack the political will to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/05\/28\/opinion\/last-pandemic.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">implement existing clean air technologies at scale<\/a>, it also increases the likelihood of catastrophic pandemics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Definition:<\/strong>&nbsp;Biotechnology refers to the design and construction of artificial biological pathways and organisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key developments:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/the-economist-explains\/2021\/11\/01\/what-is-gain-of-function-research\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Gain-of-function (GOF) research<\/a>\u00a0attempts to improve our understanding of an organism\u2019s pathogenesis, transmissibility, and other factors<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GOF research is accelerated by breakthroughs in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Protein_engineering\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">protein engineering<\/a>\u00a0(e.g. directed evolution or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-021-03819-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">machine learning)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The recent advent of benchtop DNA synthesizers\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/progress.institute\/preventing-the-misuse-of-dna-synthesis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">could allow anybody to synthesize any gene sequence<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.broadinstitute.org\/what-broad\/areas-focus\/project-spotlight\/questions-and-answers-about-crispr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CRISPR<\/a>\u00a0technologies enable the systematic editing of genes in live organisms at scale<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Opportunities from biotech:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d42859-020-00025-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Better vaccines<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC5586729\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Personalized medicine<\/a>\u00a0and entirely new therapeutics that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/323299396_Deep_learning_for_biology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">go beyond current approaches<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gain-of-function research can\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/protocol\/10.1007\/978-1-4939-8678-1_28\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">help us understand<\/a>\u00a0the mechanics of pathogen spread better<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Better\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/sae2.12014\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">crop resistance<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/news\/program\/2023\/nrel-launches-synthetic-biology-project-to-advance-biofuel-discovery-technologies-with-lanzatech-northwestern-and-yale.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">new biofuels<\/a>\u00a0\u2192 decreased pesticide &amp; fossil-fuel use<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Catastrophic risks from biotech:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Engineered pathogens can have worse virulence\/transmissibility tradeoffs as seen in nature: they could spread faster and be deadlier<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plummeting costs means thousands of actors may soon have access to these tools\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dam.gcsp.ch\/files\/doc\/gcsp-geneva-paper-29-22?_gl=1*w93j6n*_ga*MTcwODQyODI0Mi4xNjgyMDExODM2*_ga_Z66DSTVXTJ*MTY4MjI5OTgyMy4yLjAuMTY4MjI5OTgyMy4wLjAuMA..\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(Esvelt, 2022, p.10)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Engineered pandemics could kill billions or even pose an existential risk.\u00a0 The originator could be:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>States (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC1326447\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bioweapons programs<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Terrorists (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhi.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/C-Nelson-Engineered-Pathogens.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bioterrorism<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Established laboratories\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/science\/article\/2022\/11\/13\/virology-a-timeline-of-lab-accidents-biological-attacks-and-increasingly-dangerous-experiments_6004113_10.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(lab leaks<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Individual\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/scitable\/blog\/bio2.0\/the_promises_demands_and_risks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u2018biohackers\u2019<\/a>\u00a0(DIY lab leaks)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Governance gaps in biotech:<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>No international framework to identify &amp;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240036161\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">govern dual-use research of concern<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gaps in data-sharing at the international level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cset.georgetown.edu\/publication\/mapping-biosafety-level-3-laboratories-by-publications\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No definitive registry<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC8414973\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BSL-3 and BSL-4<\/a>\u00a0labs (the highest risk categories). There is no international authority monitoring these. Most incidents probably aren\u2019t disclosed.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/media.nti.org\/documents\/Biosecurity_Innovation_and_Risk_Reduction.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Protocols for DNA synthesis screening<\/a>\u00a0differ internationally and are rarely applied by companies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Solutions to the risks posed by biotech:<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Artificial Intelligence can help with solutions. For instance,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33293535\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">using neural nets to find risky labs<\/a>\u00a0from open-source data or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.centerforhealthsecurity.org\/our-work\/pubs_archive\/pubs-pdfs\/2018\/181009-gcbr-tech-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">improved diagnostics<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-022-01940-x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Wastewater monitoring<\/a>\u00a0to detect the presence of pathogens<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mattwridley\/status\/1530490051020345344?lang=en-GB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pandemic test-ban treaty<\/a>: ban dissemination of results from riskiest experiments\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Work with labs to establish secure and universal DNA synthesis screening (<a href=\"https:\/\/ibbis.bio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBBIS<\/a>\u00a0is doing this)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implementing the WHO\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\/item\/03-03-2023-countries-begin-negotiations-on-global-agreement-to-protect-world-from-future-pandemic-emergencies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">global accord on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/disarmament\/biological-weapons\/national-implementation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Implementation<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nti.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Creating-a-Verification-Protocol_FINAL_June2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">verification<\/a>\u00a0mechanisms for the Biological Weapons Convention<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reduce vulnerabilities: improve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scienceopen.com\/document_file\/843ff097-c837-4150-8cf4-28202299468b\/ScienceOpenPreprint\/preprint%20upload%20version%20of%20Innovating%20Respirators_%20PPE%20Lessons%20for%20Future%20Pandemics%20v7.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">personal protective equipment<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41541-021-00290-y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">vaccine development<\/a>, install\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC4595666\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">germicidal low-wavelength light<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Prominent case studies of risks from biotech:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-defense-anthrax-idUKKCN0UT1QW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dugway proving ground<\/a>: a prominent \u2018lab leak\u2019 incident: the a US government lab accidentally mailed anthrax samples to labs around the country\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-35975069\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aum Shinrikyo<\/a>\u00a0was a cult that released synthesised sarin gas into Tokyo subway in the 90s<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Soviet\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/blogs\/secrecy\/2012\/07\/soviet_bw\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bioweapons programme<\/a>: cost billions of $, undetected for decades<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Prominent experts:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/hearthisidea.com\/episodes\/esvelt-sandbrink\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Kevin Esvelt<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0is an expert (one of the pioneers of Crispr); he now devotes his work to reducing risks from biotechnology<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/futureoflife.org\/podcast\/on-the-future-of-computation-synthetic-biology-and-life-with-george-church\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">George Church<\/a>\u00a0is another founder of the field who has spoken publicly about the risks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you would like to suggest additions or have other feedback, please email&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:konrad@simoninstitute.ch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">konrad@simoninstitute.ch.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"acf-hidden-block\" style=\"display:none;\">Jacob Arbeid Konrad Seifert <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The last few years have witnessed exciting developments in the field of biotechnology, driven in part by the machine learning revolution. However, as the Covid-19 pandemic shows, humanity is vulnerable to biological threats, whether natural or man-made. Biotechnological progress is increasing the risk of extreme pandemics. To assist international policy actors in the development of [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,3],"tags":[86,85],"post_formats":[21],"post_types":[23],"class_list":["post-531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-biosecurity","category-risk-goverance","tag-biosecurity","tag-biotechnology","post_formats-research","post_types-explainer"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=531"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1053,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/531\/revisions\/1053"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=531"},{"taxonomy":"post_formats","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/post_formats?post=531"},{"taxonomy":"post_types","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/simoninstitute.ch\/api\/wp\/v2\/post_types?post=531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}